On Friday, the FIFA World Cup European qualifying groups were drawn in Switzerland. Estonia was drawn against the losing team from the UEFA Nations League quarter-final game between Germany and Italy, Norway, Israel, and Moldova.
Germany and Italy will play a two-legged quarter-final in the UEFA Nations League in the spring of 2025, from where the winning nation will go to four-team Group A, accompanied by Slovakia, Northern Ireland, and Luxembourg, and the loser heading to five-team Group I, with Estonia, Norway, Israel, and Moldova.
That means Estonia will be playing against a four-time World Cup winner, Germany, winning their final (to date) trophy in 2014, with Italy raising the cup in 2006. Currently, Italy is ranked ninth, and Germany is tenth in the FIFA World rankings. Estonia will also be facing Erling Håland’s home country, Norway (ranked 43rd), Israel (76th), and Moldova (151st).
The European qualifying tournament will begin in March 2025 and will end in November of that year. Estonia will start their campaign away against Israel on the 22nd of March, although due to the prevailing situation in the country, Israel plays their “home games” on Hungarian soil. Three days later, Estonia will be hosted by Moldova. Both matches start at 21.45.
Estonia play their first home game on the 6th of June against Israel. Three days later, Norway will visit the A. Le. Coq Arena, who’s leaders are Manchester City and Arsenal stars Erling Håland and Martin Ødegaard. Both fixtures are to begin at 21.45.
The fifth round of games will be played on the 5th of September, away at either Germany or Italy at 21.45. Between 7-9 September, Estonia does not have a qualifying game and will most likely arrange a friendly match.
On the 11th of October, at 21.45, the loser of the UEFA Nations League quarter-final will visit Tallinn. Three days later, on the 14th of October, at 21.45, Estonia will host Moldova. To conclude the campaign, Estonia travels to Norway, facing the hosting country on the 13th of November at 19.00. On the next matchday between 16th-18th of November, Estonia can arrange another friendly.
*All starting times GMT (+2)
The format is familiar from earlier: 12 four or five-team groups will take part in the qualifying tournament, where the winner of each group secures a spot in the 2026 World Cup held in Canada, the USA, and Mexico. The final four spots will be decided via play-offs held in March 2026, where the 2nd place teams and four best-ranked Nations League group winners, who are yet to qualify for the tournament, will face off.
Estonia head coach Jürgen Henn on the draw:
“To think about the group in general, then any group would be rather difficult for a nation like ours. Of course you can pick out some teams and find opponents, who we could be more comfortable with, but this group is clearly one of the most even and strongest overall. Germany or Italy – both are top teams. Norway won the Nations League Division B and will be promoted to the Division A. Israel played in Division A, drawing with France and beating Belgium. Moldova was promoted from Division D to Division C. A very high quality group for us.”
Would Estonia instead have wanted to play in a four-team group or a five-team group? Henn answered: “Maybe a five-team group was better in some way – we wanted to play, so we wouldn’t have to wait till Autumn. Also there is a higher chance to play against a little bit of a lower level team.”
Moldova was drawn from the fifth pot. The rest of the teams in that pot were Malta, Andorra, Gibraltar, Liechtenstein, and San Marino. “They won Division D and were promoted. Quite many players play in Romania’s top flight and so on. Probably the strongest opponent from the last pot.”
Henn also added that Norway was one of the strongest teams in Pot 2. “If at first glance it does not look attractive, then their player pool has some very strong players, who play in Europe’s top leagues and top clubs. I think they are attractive and also very strong. With that said, making a plan is going to be very difficult. They are strong as a team and strong individually. Definitely one of the strongest from that pot.”
What were the coach’s thoughts and hopes pre-draw? “Of course, the first thing you would hope for is sporting success, but when the first few pairs or teams have been drawn, then you have to start thinking about if it’s a strong opponent that would be playable for us. At first, you hope for this, but if it fails, you hope it will be attractive to the spectators. I think Italy or Germany and Norway definitely could be just that.”
Henn revealed, that the drawing system was a bit weird to him: “There are so many exclusions, which narrow your potential opponents down a little bit. In that case, it was not possible to even get every single opponent, which makes it a little weird. At one point, you understand who could be drawn and who could not be drawn. For me it makes it a little bit different, but the procedures and rules change constantly, you have to adapt to it.”
Sources: https://soccernet.ee/artikkel/henn-loosist-vaga-korge-kvaliteediga-ja-pealtvaatajate-jaoks-atraktiivne-grupp
https://soccernet.ee/artikkel/ajakava-paigas-eesti-alustab-martsis-kahe-voorsilmanguga-assadega-madistatakse-sugisel
https://soccernet.ee/artikkel/eesti-koondis-kohtub-mm-valiksarjas-haalandi-ja-neljakordse-maailmameistriga