Estonian clubs have strengthened their position in the UEFA country ranking after a second successive strong week in Europe, with three wins and one defeat in the opening legs of the second qualifying round.
Flora’s win over TNS ensured all four Estonian representatives have now recorded at least one victory in this season’s European qualifiers. Across 12 matches so far this summer, Estonian sides have collected seven wins, three draws and two defeats.
UEFA calculates association coefficients over a rolling five-year cycle, with the bottom five nations in the access list (places 51-55) losing a fourth European place. Estonia did not have a fourth spot in 2021-22 and 2022-23, but strong results in 2021 – led by Flora’s run to the Conference League group stage – helped keep the country clear of the danger zone in recent seasons.
Those 2021 season points are now close to dropping out of the equation, increasing the pressure on Estonia’s clubs to deliver again. Under UEFA’s system, any loss of a European place would apply with a one-year delay, meaning a drop into the bottom five would affect the 2028-29 season rather than 2027-28.
Each qualifying win is worth one coefficient point and each draw 0.5, with the association total divided by the number of clubs involved – four in Estonia’s case, meaning that every win brings a net .250 points. Estonia began the summer needing roughly two coefficient points to help protect the fourth place, and the early results have already moved the country from 53rd to 48th in the UEFA’s live ranking.
However, direct rivals still have matches in hand. Champions from Georgia and Northern Ireland, as well as Gibraltar’s representative, have reached the Champions League second qualifying round, guaranteeing them at least two more rounds – four games – with a possible route into a league phase. Georgia’s Dinamo Tbilisi also made a statement in the Conference League by beating Lithuanian FK Žalgiris 3-0 in the first leg.
Andorra remains within reach, with Estonia needing one more win than the principality to move ahead. Two Andorran clubs suffered heavy first-leg defeats in the Conference League second qualifying round, while champions Inter Club d’Escaldes received a bye and will face the winner of Flora vs TNS in the third qualifying round.
___________________
Source: https://soccernet.ee/artikkel/paasteoperatsioon-on-kulgenud-suureparaselt-neljas-eurokoht-on-peaaegu-kindlustatud
