With Conference League fixtures set, Kauno Žalgiris’ six-match schedule is ranked as the third-hardest in the competition by the Football Meets Data analytics portal, while Riga FC sit among the clubs with a more favourable route through the league phase.
Riga FC and Kauno Žalgiris will meet in a Baltic league-phase fixture, but the draws surrounding that game have placed the two clubs in markedly different positions. Riga will host Atalanta, Kairat Almaty and Jablonec, with away matches against Pafos, Borac Banja Luka and Kauno Žalgiris. The Lithuanian champions will welcome Freiburg, Brann and Riga to Kaunas before travelling to Brighton, Lugano and Egnatia.
Popular football analytics portal Football Meets Data’s post-draw model places Kauno Žalgiris third in the 36-team field for schedule difficulty, behind only Ajax and Panathinaikos. The average Elo rating of their opponents is 57 points above the Conference League field average, while Riga are 29 points below it and have the eighth-easiest draw by the same measure. The resulting 86-point gap reflects the overall depth of the two schedules rather than their hardest individual opponents.
Transfermarkt’s 2026 squad estimates reinforce that distinction. Riga’s six opponents have an average value of approximately €84.2m, although Atalanta alone account for more than 86% of the total. Once the Italian side’s €436.5m squad is removed, the other five average €13.7m, slightly below Riga’s own valuation of €15.53m, while the median value of a Riga opponent is €12.94m.
Kauno Žalgiris face opponents worth an average of approximately €168.3m, twice Riga’s corresponding figure and more than 20 times their own estimated €8.20m squad value. Brighton and Freiburg account for most of that total, but even after removing those two clubs, the remaining four opponents average €23.1m. Kauno’s median opponent is valued at €34.8m, almost three times the corresponding figure for Riga.
Riga face one outlier and five competitive fixtures
Atalanta at home is the clear outlier in Riga’s campaign. The Pot 1 side are valued at approximately €436.5m, around 28 times more than Riga, and were placed 32nd in Europe by a separate EloFootball ranking published earlier in August. Riga will have the benefit of playing at home, but the financial and individual-quality gap makes this the fixture in which any return would represent a considerable upset.
Pafos away is less glamorous but may be the most difficult of Riga’s remaining matches. The Cypriot club carry an estimated €25.3m squad value and were seeded in Pot 2 after reaching the 2025/26 Champions League league phase, where they drew away to Olympiacos and held Monaco 2-2 at home. Their recent European experience and the location of the fixture make this a more demanding assignment than the market-value gap alone suggests.
Borac Banja Luka away offers a different test. Borac’s estimated €9.15m value is below Riga’s, but their Pot 3 status reflects a Conference League run to the round of 16 in 2024/25. Riga may have the stronger squad on paper, although the match in Banja Luka is unlikely to resemble a straightforward tie against a lower-valued opponent.
The two remaining home matches provide Riga’s clearest foundation for a competitive league-phase campaign. Kairat Almaty, valued at approximately €12.5m, bring the experience of playing in last season’s Champions League league phase, but their squad sits within Riga’s financial range. Jablonec, valued at €13.38m, have already demonstrated their suitability for this level by beating RFS 4-1 on aggregate and then eliminating Rangers on penalties in the play-off round. Both are dangerous opponents, although home advantage leaves Riga with credible routes to points.
Kauno Žalgiris away completes the draw and is Riga’s lowest-valued fixture. The Lithuanian side’s historic qualification shows the limitations of reducing the comparison to transfer values, but their €8.20m estimate makes the Baltic meeting one Riga will expect to approach with a realistic chance of winning.
Kauno’s challenges extend beyond Brighton and Freiburg
Kauno Žalgiris avoided Atalanta from Pot 1 but instead received Freiburg at home, only three months after the German club reached the Europa League final. Freiburg lost that match 3-0 to Aston Villa, having collected 17 points in the league phase and progressed through three knockout rounds. Their estimated €239.3m squad is around 29 times more valuable than Kauno’s, while the August EloFootball ranking placed them joint 45th in Europe.
Brighton away is an even greater mismatch. The Premier League side’s estimated €678m squad is roughly 83 times the value of Kauno Žalgiris, while the same independent Elo table ranked them 19th in Europe, above Atalanta and every other opponent drawn by either Baltic club. It is comfortably the hardest single fixture in the two schedules.
The problem for Kauno is that the draw remains difficult after those two matches. Lugano away brings a Swiss squad valued at approximately €42.18m, more than five times Kauno’s valuation, while Brann at home represents another sizeable gap at €27.45m. Neither carries the profile of Brighton or Freiburg, but both sit well above the financial level normally encountered by the Lithuanian champions.
Riga at home is more balanced, although the Latvian club’s €15.53m squad remains almost twice as valuable as Kauno’s. Egnatia away, valued at approximately €7.25m, are the only opponent in the Lithuanian side’s schedule estimated below Kauno Žalgiris, making the trip to Albania one of the clearest opportunities to collect points despite the absence of home advantage.
The contrast between the two draws is therefore stark – Riga face one extreme mismatch against Atalanta, followed by five opponents whose combined financial level is close to their own, including home fixtures against Kairat and Jablonec. Kauno Žalgiris, on the other hand, have two elite opponents, two further clubs valued at more than three times their squad, and a Baltic meeting against a Riga side with greater financial resources and defending Champions in a league significantly beyond Toplyga in UEFA association rankings.
Riga’s most plausible route towards the top 24 begins with their two more balanced home matches and continues through the trips to Banja Luka and Kaunas. Kauno’s margin is considerably narrower, with the games against Egnatia and Riga likely to carry particular importance and the home meeting with Brann offering the most realistic opportunity to take points from one of their higher-ranked opponents.
The Baltic meeting in Kaunas will consequently mean different things for each side. For Riga, it is one of several accessible fixtures within a relatively favourable draw, whereas for Kauno Žalgiris, it may become one of the only matches on which their prospects of extending a historic European campaign depend.
