Vaprus ascendant: Baltic Power Rankings 1st September Update

Codnity Creative Baltic Power Rankings are back! Thank you to Codnity Creative for supporting this initiative.

Between the Baltic derby in the Champions League QR1, national cups and some major upsets in the domestic leagues, much has transpired since the last calibration back in June. So, let’s unpack.

Biggest surprises

The best and biggest surprise of the summer are Pärnu Vaprus, who are currently on a historic winning spree which saw them dispatch Estonian heavyweights Paide and Kalju, as well as defending champions Levadia in the space of 20 days. Jumping 4 places and adding 26 points to their coefficient, Vaprus have become something of an unstoppable force in Premium liiga owing to the young and creative duo of attackers Tristan Pajo and Marten-Chris Paalberg. The latter is only 16 years old managed to score 5 in his last 4 appearances, including against Levadia.

Now finding themselves in the 20th place, Vaprus have managed to climb up from 27th during the season thus far – very impressive indeed!

Only 4 other clubs recorded as much movement as Vaprus during this ranking window – Auda, Jelgava, Grobiņa and Kalev. Whilst Kalev was largely floated by poor results of other clubs surrounding it, Auda, Grobiņa and Jelgava moved entirely on their own… but in the opposite direction.

Jelgava crashed down from 20th to 24th, effectively swapping places with Vaprus, while Auda is down to 10th, having lost 4 out of their last 5 league games (albeit still progressing in the Cup). In dropping to 10th, Auda have fully undone any coefficient gains this season to date and are back to where they were at GW1. Jelgava started in 26th and have been yo-yoing ever since, with 19th place being their highest ranking thus far.

No change at the top

Despite a range of surprising results, the Top 6 remains calcified with RFS leading the pack, Riga FC (very) close behind, and then FC Flora, FK Žalgiris, Kauno Žalgiris and FCI Levadia following. Kauno Žalgiris, in particular, have been showing great form domestically, but their lack of consistency after the European qualifiers meant that they are still some ways off from delivering another dimension of humiliation on the Vilnius rivals – FK Žalgiris.

The story is essentially the same up north, in Estonia. Levadia’s trip-ups and Flora’s OK form mean that the chasing club is simply not able to accumulate enough coefficient points to close the gap.

Metta and Grobiņa in freefall

A few clubs, by now, are clearly in trouble. Metta, who spent the longest time seemingly rooted to the 14th place, are now down to 23rd. Similarly, FK Grobiņa’s poor form sees them down in 21st, having lost 4 places since last rankings. Both clubs have only secured 4 points from their last 5 domestic league games and both have been eliminated from the Latvian Cup.

Entrenchers

While lack of movement in the Top 6 is not unexpected, given the differences in coefficients between clubs up there, there are also some interesting trends of clubs claiming and securing positions further down the table.

FA Šiauliai, Narva Trans and FK Tukums 2000 have not moved from their respective 15th, 16th and 18th places since all the way back in late May! Are these clubs the benchmark for what a mid-strength top-tier side in the Baltics is? While Šiauliai and Narva Trans are relatively insulated from Super Nova below and Kalju above, Tukums is in a more precarious position, being pressed by Džiugas Telšiai.

The “sub-500” club

The bottom of the rankings – the so-called ‘sub-500’ coefficient points club – still consists of six members: DFK Dainava Alytus, Tammeka Tartu, Tallinna Kalev, FK Riteriai, Harju JK, FC Kuressaare. Not much has changed there except for minor changes by a place or two, primarily due to a one-off positive result or thanks to a larger coefficient loss by one or more of the neighbours. One potential exception here is Dainava Alytus.

The only Baltic club to yet win a match almost half-way into the season, Dainava have since gotten themselves a new coach and improved results followed. Accordingly, they have been steadily digging themselves out of the bottom of the table. This will not be an easy task, however, as above them is FS Jelgava who are separated by a moat of 90 coefficient points. Unless Dainava embark on a convincing winning spree similar to that of Vaprus, it seems unlikely that they will finish the season higher than where they currently are.