Two months ago, RFS looked untouchable. The defending Latvian champions had reeled off eight straight wins, six of them clean sheets, heading into the Champions League second qualifying round. Since then, the decline has been dramatic: seven defeats in 13 matches, only one clean sheet in that entire run. And only two of those losses were against a genuinely stronger opponent — Malmö FF (1:4, 0:1). The others came against sides RFS would normally expect to beat: 1:2 and 0:1 to KuPS, 0:1 and 2:2 against Ħamrun Spartans, 1:4 against Jelgava, and a 0:2 Latvian Cup semifinal loss to Auda. A 5:1 victory over depleted BFC Daugavpils brought brief respite, but with the third Big Riga Derby already tomorrow, RFS trail by six points. The equation is simple yet brutal: win all remaining games, take the derbies by at least four goals on aggregate, and the title is theirs. Anything less, and Riga FC remain favourites.
The KuPS turning point
Plenty of moments could be picked out as turning points, but the first leg against KuPS in Riga (1:2) summed up many of the season’s recurring issues. The back line was stripped: three regular central defenders unavailable (four if you count new signing Aleksandar Filipović, not yet fielded), while the attacking line was so depleted that both the starting XI and the substitutions were patched together from what was left. KuPS took the lead with a brilliant direct free-kick worth just 0.07 xGA — low-probability goals that have haunted RFS this year. The second came from an uncharacteristic blunder by veteran Czech left-back Petr Mareš, whose underhit pass gifted possession and a 0:2 deficit before half-time. Mareš was substituted soon after. Of the XI that had started against Ajax last autumn, only four started here. Just one winter signing made the lineup. The recruitment, much like the defending, was out of sync.
The injury crisis
Above all, injuries have defined this campaign. The casualty list is long and cruel. Ismael Diomande celebrated last year’s historic APOEL win from a wheelchair after rupturing his ACL; his expected big transfer collapsed, and he did not return until August 2024 — 11.5 months later. He only started a game almost exactly a year after the injury. In September he scored his first goal in 13 months, from the penalty spot against BFC Daugavpils, thanks to Jānis Ikaunieks handing him the ball when he could have sealed a hat-trick.
Mārtiņš Ķigurs has been sidelined for nine months, appearing only as a substitute 11 times this summer. Young defender Niks Sliede has been out for four and a half months. Herdi Prenga and Lasha Odisharia have not featured for more than two months since the European qualifiers. Cedric Kouadio has just returned after four months out; Haruna Njie was missing for a month. Viktor Osuagwu has not played at all this season. Rostand Ndjiki managed just one appearance in four months before succumbing again. At times, it has been easier to list who is fit than who is not.
The crushing calendar
Fixture congestion is the second major culprit. Last season, RFS played 57 official matches in 11 months — more than any other Latvian club. This season, they are on a similar path: 41 competitive matches in just six and a half months. Sunday’s clash in Liepāja will be their 100th competitive fixture in 19 months. By comparison, Riga FC have played 17 fewer in that span. The raw totals resemble Europe’s elite: Chelsea played 64 matches in their trophy-laden season, PSG 65, Real Madrid 68. The difference is context. RFS players face similar volume but with less recovery infrastructure, harsher travel, and a compressed March-to-November calendar intensified by five international breaks.
Roberts Savaļnieks is a case study in endurance. At 32, he played 47 of 57 club games last season, starting 44, plus nine of Latvia’s 10 internationals. In total: 50 starts from 67 possible fixtures. Serbian midfielder Stefan Panić, now 33, is the ironman: 60 starts in 65 Virslīga games, all 24 in European competition, and 92 of 98 total RFS fixtures — a staggering 88.3 full matches’ worth of minutes. That workload matches or exceeds European elite benchmarks, with one caveat: unlike Federico Valverde at Real Madrid (61.7 full matches plus Uruguay travel), Panić avoids international duty. Still, he is arguably RFS’s best performer this season. His durability is both blessing and symptom of a squad stretched to breaking point.
Transfers and missteps
Recruitment has compounded the problems. Last winter’s four headline signings — Yukiyoshi Karashima from Žalgiris, Niks Sliede (back) from Valmiera, and wingers Mor Talla (Auda) and Jérémie Porsan-Clemente (Valmiera) — looked logical on paper. Yet in Europe only Talla made a sustained impact; Karashima was loaned out to HJK, Porsan-Clemente played just 40 minutes, and Sliede succumbed to long-known injury risks. Depth was added in Rendijs Šibass (Metta) and youngsters Vitinho and Faycal Konate, but none were decisive. Even goalkeeper planning faltered: Krišjānis Zviedris, later Riga’s Latvia No. 1, was offered but not signed. Instead came Austrian-Croat Marko Marić, experienced but rusty after months without a match. Opinions are split: at times assured, at times error-prone.
Summer brought a larger influx: striker Dāvis Ikaunieks returned, Dutchman Tayrell Wouter arrived from Georgia after a 19-goal season, veteran Filipović was finally introduced, and talents like Barthélémy Diedhiou and Strahinja Rakić got minutes. Facundo García came from Cyprus but only just debuted fully. The pattern is clear: logical moves on paper, but little immediate impact. With Adam Markhiev transferred to Limassol (now in Nuremberg and the Finland senior squad) and Emerson departed to Japan, RFS have yet to replace their key creative outlets.
Fragile defence, fragile control
Defensively, RFS have lost their edge. In 29 Virslīga matches they have conceded 30 goals — 1.03 per game, their worst since their early years in the league. Riga FC, by contrast, have conceded just 21, never more than two in any game. RFS’s xGA (22.9) is actually better than Riga’s (23.68), but errors and lapses make the difference. The 1:4 humiliation against Jelgava epitomised it: RFS created 3.45 xG to Jelgava’s 1.09 but still lost heavily. Set-piece walls crumbled, as against Auda in the Cup semi-final. Across all competitions, RFS have managed only one clean sheet in their last 14 games. Compared to last year’s Europa League run — where they held Ajax 1:0 and APOEL 2:1 — the drop-off is glaring.
Equally concerning is resilience. Last season, when conceding first, RFS recovered in six of 16 games. This year: just three of 15. They more often concede first (37% vs 28%) and less often reply. Against KuPS and Ħamrun they never once held the lead across four legs.
The Jānis factor
Then there is Ikaunieks. Last summer he was Europe’s talisman for RFS, delivering eight goals and three assists, including decisive strikes against Norwegian and Cypriot champions. This summer, suspension for dissent kept him out of three critical qualifiers. He managed just one assist in the entire European run. Domestically, though, he has rediscovered his spark: since recovering from injury, he has 14 goals and five assists in 17 league games. If RFS are to make up the ground on Riga FC, it will depend as much on Jānis’ magic as on defensive solidity.
Usovs: In Morozs we trust
For all the turbulence, the club insists head coach Viktors Morozs is secure. Sporting director Aleksandrs Usovs told Edmunds Novickis’ Patreon that “we completely trust the coach. Both he and the staff are working even harder than last year, but in football, there isn’t always a direct link between effort and result. Viktors is one of the best, if not the best, coaches in the Baltics.” On missed European chances, he was blunt: “We were favourites against Hamrun, KuPS, and Levadia. We had every chance to reach the group stage. The fact that we didn’t is entirely our fault. There is no excuse.”
It is a reminder that despite the injuries, the fixture overload, and the failed transfers, the accountability lies inside the club. The crisis is real, but so too is the chance: with two derbies still to come, the title remains — mathematically and psychologically — in their own hands.
Source: https://sportacentrs.com/futbols/virsliga/22092025-astonos_menesos_no_uzvaras_par_ajax_lidz_
