Baltic football is set for a thrilling week on the European stage, as clubs from Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia gear up for crucial Champions League and Conference League qualifiers, with fierce regional clashes and ambitious underdogs all vying to keep their continental dreams alive. This is a preview following the bookmakers odds.
Baltic derby in Tallinn as Levadia take on RFS
Estonia’s Levadia and Latvia’s RFS clash in a tantalizing all-Baltic tie in the Champions League qualifiers today at 19:30 at A. Le Coq Arena in Tallinn. Levadia enter the fixture with strong domestic form, having won five straight games. However, last season’s Europa League side RFS, with 4 wins and a single loss in their last five outings, are slight favorites, holding a 52% chance of victory according to bookmaker predictions.
This is a high-stakes matchup not only for bragging rights in the region but also for valuable progression in Europe’s premier competition. Crucially, RFS significantly outclass Levadia both on total Transfermarkt squad value in the Baltic Power Rankings, so the defending Estonian Champions will have extra motivation to rub it in the noses of their flashier Latvian neighbours.
RFS, however, will not feel lonely in Tallinn as multiple buses of incoming away fans are reportedly being joined by 30-40 FC Flora supporters seeking to witness the misfortune of their arch-rivals from the best seats in the house.
Žalgiris seek edge against Hamrun Spartans
Lithuanian champions Žalgiris Vilnius start their Champions League campaign tomorrow at 19:00 as they host Hamrun Spartans of Malta. Žalgiris, who really struggle this season, have shown signs of improvement recently, recording 2 wins, 1 loss, and 2 draws in their last five matches. They enter the clash with a slight edge, holding a 54% chance of victory.
Hamrun Spartans, however, are no pushovers even despite being off-season, so the defending A Lyga Champions will be eager to establish a strong result at home to ease the pressure ahead of a tricky away leg in Malta.
Kauno Žalgiris heavy favorites at home
In the Europa Conference League, Lithuania’s Kauno Žalgiris look well-positioned as they host Penybont of Wales in Jonava on Thursday at 19:00 (their home ground is unavailable due to a scheduled concert). Boasting an impressive record of 4 wins and 1 draw in recent outings, the Kaunas side enter the tie as clear favorites, holding an 83% chance of victory. Penybont are currently off-season, adding to their disadvantage as they face a significant challenge against current A Lyga leaders who are eager to progress in Europe.
Kalju face stern test against Partizani
Estonian side Nõmme Kalju welcome Albania’s Partizani to Tallinn on Thursday at 19:45. Kalju’s recent form has been mixed, with 2 wins, 2 losses, and a draw in their last five matches, translating to just a 34% probability of victory. Partizani, emerging from their off-season, bring European pedigree and tactical discipline. Kalju will need to capitalize on home advantage and hope to catch their Albanian visitors short on match sharpness.
Paide off to the Mediterranean after three points
Paide will be travelling to the Mediterranean where they will face Magpies on Thursday at 18:00. Magpies won the Gibraltar Cup but only finished 4th in the 2024/2025 season. Paide are in good form, having won 4 of their last 5 fixtures and currently sitting third in Estonian top flight. They have just brought in reinforcements in the form of Henri Anier. With odds to win at almost 59%, Paide will be looking to make a strong start to their European campaign.
Daugavpils underdogs in Albania
Latvia’s Daugavpils hit the road for a 21:00 clash on Thursday against Albania’s Vllaznia. Daugavpils have only 1 win, alongside 2 draws and 2 losses in their last five games, and carry a 31% chance of causing an upset. Vllaznia, seasoned in European competition, will start as favorites on home soil, meaning Daugavpils must defend resolutely and seize any chances that come their way. This will be a European debut for the Latgale side who just recently bolstered their ranks with some quality players.
Hegelmann target Irish scalp
Lithuanian side Hegelmann face St Patrick’s Athletic in Dublin on Thursday at 21:45. Hegelmann have shown resilience with 2 wins, 2 losses, and a draw recently, and their 42% win probability suggests a competitive matchup. St Pat’s have struggled for form, winless in their last five with 2 draws and 3 losses, offering Hegelmann a real opportunity to grab a positive result away from home. A good result in Dublin would significantly boost the Lithuanians’ hopes of progressing in the Conference League.
Auda seek upset in Northern Ireland
Latvia’s Auda travel to face Larne at 22:00 on Thursday. With 3 wins and 2 losses in their past five matches, Auda enter the tie with a 37% chance of victory. Larne, currently in their off-season, could be vulnerable if Auda start the match aggressively. The Latvians will be motivated to prove themselves on the European stage once again, having exceeded all expectations by narrowly losing in QR3 last year whilst overcoming another Northern Irish side in the process – Cliftonville.
Larne are, of course, no strangers to Latvian opposition, having faced RFS in the Champions League qualifiers last year, losing 7-0 on aggregate but still making it to the Conference League league phase.
Flora face tough Icelandic challenge
Estonia’s Flora Tallinn cap off Thursday’s action with a late kickoff at 23:00 as they visit Valur in Iceland. Flora have shown solid form with 3 wins and 2 losses, but face a tough task against a Valur side riding high with 5 consecutive wins. Flora have only a 30% chance of victory and will need tactical discipline and clinical finishing to keep the tie in reach for the return leg in Tallinn.
With critical matches across both European competitions, Baltic clubs have a busy week ahead. Fans will be hoping for upsets and strong performances as their sides aim to make a statement for this season’s European campaigns both for their own and their country’s UEFA Rankings benefits. In this latter regard, Estonia and Latvia are two associations of note as Estonians are in the fight to avoid losing their 4th European spot while Latvians are on the precipice of entering the coveted Top 33 and earning a Europa league qualification spot.
