For Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, this summer’s UEFA club competitions are about much more than reaching the next qualifying round. Every victory, every draw and every coefficient point could shape how many clubs each country will send into Europe in the coming years.
While Latvia can realistically afford to dream of climbing the UEFA association rankings, Estonia and Lithuania enter the new European campaign under far greater pressure. Poor performances this summer could ultimately cost one of them a European place, reducing their allocation from four clubs to three from the 2028/29 season onwards.
The UEFA association rankings are calculated using each country’s results over the previous five European seasons. With four clubs representing each Baltic nation, every qualifying victory is worth 0.250 coefficient points, while a draw adds 0.125. Defeats bring no points, making every match in July and August significant.
Following the conclusion of last season, Latvia occupied 39th place with 12.875 coefficient points, ahead of Estonia in 43rd (8.207) and Lithuania in 46th (7.750). All three countries remained comfortably inside the top 50, ensuring four European places through the 2027/28 campaign, as only associations ranked 51st to 55th receive just three European representatives.
However, the picture changes dramatically once the oldest season drops from the calculation.
Estonia facing the biggest challenge
No Baltic nation has more at stake than Estonia. The Estonians are losing the points earned during the remarkable 2021/22 campaign, when Flora Tallinn became the first – and still only – Estonian club to qualify for the group stage of a UEFA competition after reaching the inaugural UEFA Europa Conference League proper. Flora’s memorable European run, highlighted by a famous victory over Partizan Belgrade, earned Estonia 3.166 coefficient points, while the country collected 3.666 points in total that season. In other words, Flora alone contributed around 86 percent of Estonia’s coefficient that year.
With those points now disappearing, Estonia’s total drops dramatically to just 4.541, leaving the country in 53rd place before this summer’s qualifiers begin.
That immediately places enormous importance on every result this season. Estonia’s first hurdle already carries extra significance. National champions Flora Tallinn face Georgian champions Dila Gori in the UEFA Champions League first qualifying round, while Georgia currently sit just ahead of Estonia in the rankings. Every point gained in that tie could prove valuable in the battle to climb away from the danger zone.
There is more optimism in the UEFA Conference League, where FCI Levadia have received a favourable first-round draw against Welsh side Caernarfon Town. Given Levadia’s current domestic form, the Tallinn club will be expected to contribute valuable coefficient points before a more tougher second round where Swedish side Göteborg awaits.
Nõmme Kalju also face a crucial assignment against Northern Irish side Linfield. Northern Ireland currently sits above Estonia in the UEFA rankings, making every result between clubs from the two associations even more significant.
Lithuania hearing the warning bells
Lithuania’s situation is not yet as alarming, but there are reasons for concern. After the removal of the 2021/22 season from the rankings, Lithuania sits 46th with six coefficient points and still enjoys a cushion of nearly 0.800 points over Andorra, the highest-ranked association currently outside the safe zone.
Nevertheless, Lithuania’s performances in European competition over the past three seasons have shown a worrying downward trend. If that continues, even if the country avoids losing a European place in 2028, it could become a very real possibility a year later.
Lithuanian champions Kauno Žalgiris could prove crucial in reversing that trend. As participants in the Champions League qualifying path, they are guaranteed at least four European matches regardless of results, giving them more opportunities than any other Lithuanian club to accumulate valuable coefficient points.
FK Žalgiris Vilnius have also received a favourable route. They begin against Montenegrin side Petrovac and, should they progress, would meet either Luxembourg’s Mondorf-les-Bains or Georgian club Dinamo Tbilisi in the second qualifying round – opponents that offer realistic opportunities to continue collecting points.
One of the most intriguing ties from a Baltic perspective sees Hegelmann host Estonia’s Paide Linnameeskond in the UEFA Conference League. While one Baltic club is guaranteed to be eliminated immediately, the winner would likely face Irish side Shelbourne in the next round. Although Shelbourne famously won the League of Ireland title two years ago and reached Europe through the champions’ path, they have endured a far less convincing domestic campaign this season, giving either Baltic side realistic hopes of progressing further.
Lithuania also faces another important challenge next summer, when the country will lose the substantial coefficient earned by Žalgiris Vilnius during their historic 2022/23 UEFA Europa Conference League group stage campaign, worth 2.375 coefficient points.
Latvia dreaming of climbing higher
Unlike their Baltic neighbours, Latvia can afford to look upwards rather than over their shoulder. The Latvian association currently sits comfortably above the danger zone, meaning the focus shifts from protecting four European places to chasing an even bigger prize.
An exceptional campaign could move Latvia closer to UEFA’s top 33 associations, a position that would reward the country’s domestic cup winners with a place in the UEFA Europa League first qualifying round beginning with the 2028/29 season.
Currently, Armenia occupies that coveted 33rd position after collecting 13.187 coefficient points over the previous four seasons. Latvia begins this campaign on 10.250 points, meaning closing the gap would require an outstanding collective effort.
That responsibility will not fall solely on champions Riga FC, who open their Champions League campaign against Armenian champions Ararat-Armenia. Recent European success has largely been driven by RFS, whose performances in recent seasons have become the backbone of Latvia’s coefficient growth. Both clubs will once again carry enormous importance if Latvia hopes to continue climbing.
Ahead of Latvia in the rankings are Finland, Kazakhstan, Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina, meaning supporters will also keep a close eye on clubs from those associations throughout the summer. Every qualifying victory across Europe has the potential to shift the rankings.
UEFA Coefficient rating before the start of 2026/27 European campaign.
| Rank | Association | Coefficient |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | England | 101.852 |
| 2 | Italy | 87.660 |
| 3 | Spain | 82.368 |
| 4 | Germany | 80.116 |
| 5 | France | 67.653 |
| 6 | Portugal | 62.650 |
| 7 | Belgium | 56.850 |
| 8 | Netherlands | 50.729 |
| 9 | Turkey | 46.375 |
| 10 | Czech Republic | 43.025 |
| 11 | Poland | 42.125 |
| 12 | Greece | 40.412 |
| 13 | Denmark | 34.306 |
| 14 | Norway | 33.612 |
| 15 | Cyprus | 31.568 |
| 16 | Switzerland | 26.950 |
| 17 | Sweden | 24.500 |
| 18 | Hungary | 24.437 |
| 19 | Scotland | 24.150 |
| 20 | Austria | 23.450 |
| 21 | Ukraine | 23.212 |
| 22 | Romania | 23.000 |
| 23 | Croatia | 22.156 |
| 24 | Slovenia | 21.468 |
| 25 | Israel | 20.750 |
| 26 | Azerbaijan | 18.562 |
| 27 | Slovakia | 18.250 |
| 28 | Bulgaria | 17.687 |
| 29 | russia | 17.332 |
| 30 | Serbia | 16.250 |
| 31 | Iceland | 15.020 |
| 32 | Republic of Ireland | 14.468 |
| 33 | Armenia | 13.187 |
| 34 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 12.093 |
| 35 | Kosovo | 11.656 |
| 36 | Kazakhstan | 10.875 |
| 37 | Finland | 10.250 |
| 38 | Latvia | 10.250 |
| 39 | Moldova | 9.375 |
| 40 | Liechtenstein | 8.500 |
| 41 | Faroe Islands | 8.250 |
| 42 | North Macedonia | 7.134 |
| 43 | Malta | 7.125 |
| 44 | Albania | 6.500 |
| 45 | Belarus | 6.375 |
| 46 | Lithuania | 6.000 |
| 47 | Gibraltar | 5.874 |
| 48 | Montenegro | 5.833 |
| 49 | Northern Ireland | 5.625 |
| 50 | Luxembourg | 5.375 |
| 51 | Andorra | 5.332 |
| 52 | Georgia | 4.750 |
| 53 | Estonia | 4.541 |
| 54 | Wales | 4.124 |
| 55 | San Marino | 2.665 |
