By Titas Teiten
As the Lithuanian football season nears its dramatic conclusion, the excitement is only intensifying. With just a handful of rounds remaining, questions abound, and not all of them can yet be answered. When the final matches of the 2025 A Lyga season will be played on November 8th, some clubs will celebrate the fulfillment of their ambitions, while others will be left to reflect on missed opportunities. Where each team ultimately finishes is still very much up in the air.
With five rounds left before the curtain falls on the 2025 A Lyga campaign, we’ve posed five key questions, and set out to explore and predict how the season’s finale might unfold by examining the current state of every club in Lithuania’s top flight.
Žalgiris Kaunas and the title race: just a formality, or is there still drama left?
With 68 points from 31 matches and a commanding 10-point lead over second place, it’s difficult to imagine Žalgiris Kaunas letting the A Lyga title slip away in the final five rounds. If they hold their ground, the triumph would not only be fully deserved but also mark the first championship in the club’s history, a milestone many had predicted as early as 15 or even 20 rounds ago.
Backed by an exemplary squad and the sharp tactical guidance of head coach Eivinas Černiauskas, impressively early in his managerial career, Žalgiris Kaunas have rarely looked in danger of falling down. What once seemed an ambitious dream now appears almost inevitable.
Mathematically, just six points from the remaining fixtures would secure the title, though the celebration might come even sooner. Should Hegelmann drop 3 points in their next match while Žalgiris Kaunas claim victory, the 2025 Lithuanian champions would be officially crowned.
Hegelmann’s hold on second: what’s keeping them from taking the next step?
In 2024, Andrius Skerla’s men secured a respectable second-place finish, never truly threatening the then-dominant Žalgiris Vilnius, who once again claimed the Lithuanian championship with composure and consistency. This season, history seems destined to repeat itself. With five games remaining, Hegelmann sit on 58 points, poised to finish just behind the leaders once more.
Even head coach Andrius Skerla has already extended his congratulations to Žalgiris Kaunas on their impending title, a gesture that speaks volumes about the team’s waning hopes. Inside the camp, belief in a dramatic turnaround appears to have faded.
The question, then, is simple but crucial: why? Why has this promising side, which looked capable of taking the next step earlier in the season, fallen short again?
There is no single answer. Perhaps it’s a lack of experience, or perhaps a subtle, nagging fear when the stakes are highest. The recent cup final, Hegelmann’s third defeat in such a match in just a few years, serves as a painful illustration. On paper, they were the stronger team against Panevėžys. But on the pitch, they seemed to shrink under pressure, as if the weight of expectation itself became their toughest opponent.
The same pattern echoes throughout their A Lyga campaign: matches that should have been routine victories slipped away at crucial moments. It’s as if, when the time comes to prove themselves, something falters.
Perhaps next year will finally be theirs. But for now, frustration hangs thick in the air. Hegelmann are close, painfully close. Yet, that final leap to glory remains just out of reach.
The battle for the top three: who will claim the final European spots?
While the previous questions had almost clear answers, this one remains wide open. With the fourth place no longer guaranteeing a spot in European competitions, third place has become the golden target. Three clubs, Žalgiris Vilnius (52 points), Sūduva Marijampolė (51), and FA Šiauliai (50), are locked in a tense fight for that final European ticket. Each has five games remaining, and for all three, every match will feel like a final.
For Žalgiris Vilnius, the chase represents not just an opportunity, but a form of redemption, perhaps even relief. Only a few months ago, the capital club languished in seventh place, leaving fans and pundits baffled by their decline. Since the appointment of head coach Rolandas Džiaukštas, however, the mood has shifted dramatically. The team’s play has stabilized, the confidence has returned, and victories have started to pile up. The turnaround has been remarkable, but the final stretch will determine whether the resurgence ends in triumph or heartbreak.
Sūduva Marijampolė, meanwhile, face a different story. Once sitting as high as second place, Donatas Vencevičius’ side have recently struggled to maintain momentum. Their performances suggest a dip in confidence, and the spark that once evoked memories of their late-2010s dominance seems to have dimmed. Still, the path to third remains open, but only if Sūduva can rediscover their early-season form in time.
Then there’s FA Šiauliai, a club experiencing a season of renewal. After a disappointing 2024 campaign, this year has brought progress and hope. Under Latvian coach Dainis Kazakevičs, Šiauliai have built a side defined by balance and resilience. There have been ups and downs, but overall, the trajectory is clearly upward, a sign that this could be the start of a new, sustainable rise toward the top of Lithuanian football.
What makes this race even more compelling are the fixtures ahead. Each of the three contenders will face Žalgiris Kaunas, while both Žalgiris Vilnius and Sūduva Marijampolė must take on Hegelmann. On top of that, the direct duels, Žalgiris Vilnius vs FA Šiauliai and Sūduva Marijampolė vs FA Šiauliai, could very well decide who earns that coveted third-place finish.
The mid-table mediocrity: safety secured, but what’s left to play for?
Probably the least dramatic, yet still intriguing, section of the league table features three teams comfortably safe from relegation but with little left to fight for: FK Panevėžys (6th place, 42 points), Džiugas Telšiai (7th, 41 points), and Banga Gargždai (8th, 33 points).
Among them, Roland Vrabec’s FK Panevėžys find themselves in the most favorable position. Not only do they sit above Džiugas and Banga in the standings, but their LFF Cup triumph has already secured them a spot in next season’s European qualifiers. In short, Panevėžys can approach the remainder of the campaign with far less pressure than their mid-table neighbors.
For Džiugas Telšiai, the season has been neither a success nor a disaster. Expectations were modest, and a seventh-place finish aligns with what many might have predicted before kickoff. The club could still aim to overtake Panevėžys for sixth place, or, more ambitiously, fifth, but such a leap appears unlikely.
Banga Gargždai, on the other hand, have genuine reason for disappointment. While relegation is not a concern, sitting eighth with just 33 points marks a significant step back. After finishing 5th in 2024 and, notably, winning the Lithuanian Cup, this year’s campaign has fallen well short of expectations. Changes will likely be required next season if Banga hope to recapture, or even come close to the success they enjoyed a year ago.
The relegation fight: which club will drop to the second division?
And here it comes, the least enjoyable part of the table. The stage where one, or perhaps even two, clubs will be forced to bid farewell to the top flight. This season’s relegation battle features FK Riteriai (9th place, 18 points) and Dainava Alytus (10th, 16 points), two sides fighting desperately to avoid the drop.
While it remains uncertain which club will finish at the very bottom, one thing is already clear: Vilnius District Transinvest, champions of the Pirma lyga, will take their place in next season’s A Lyga.
For Riteriai, the campaign has been turbulent both on and off the pitch. Burdened by financial troubles, unpaid salaries, and an uncertain future, the club’s instability has translated directly into poor results. Holding a fragile two-point lead over Dainava, Riteriai are far from safe. The remaining fixtures will be decisive in determining whether they can cling to their top-tier status.
Dainava Alytus, meanwhile, have endured a dramatic fall from grace. After finishing a historic fourth last season, the team now find themselves rooted to the bottom of the table. With only a few matches left, their survival hopes are hanging by a thread. Collecting even a single point has proven a major challenge throughout the campaign, and their prospects appear increasingly bleak.
Adding intrigue to an already tense situation, Riteriai and Dainava are set to face each other in the final round of the A Lyga season. It will be a match that could well determine which side remains in the top division and which one descends into the second tier.
