By Titas Teiten
As the 2026 World Cup qualifiers draw to a close, so too does Lithuania’s journey, one that, in truth, never really got going. The Lithuanian Football Federation’s target of finishing second in the group always seemed overly ambitious, and with only a handful of matches remaining, that goal now looks completely out of reach. Still, three games remain, two of which will be played in October. And while hope is faint, Lithuanian fans can’t help but wonder: could this finally be their moment to shine?
With just three points from a possible fifteen in five matches, Lithuania’s campaign has been far from disastrous, yet undeniably disappointing. The official objectives set by the federation are all but unattainable, and even the modest expectations of fans and local pundits have not been met. Given the strength of their upcoming opponents, it’s difficult to see where a turnaround might come from.
Malta and Finland: symbols of frustration
Among the most frustrating moments of the qualifiers were the two draws against Malta. The first, away in Ta’ Qali, was a lifeless affair that ended 0:0 – a fair reflection of Lithuania’s lack of creativity and intensity. The return fixture in Kaunas nearly turned into a nightmare, with the hosts narrowly salvaging a point thanks to Gvidas Gineitis’s last-minute penalty.
The 2:2 draw against Finland at the Darius and Girėnas Stadium will also be remembered as a missed opportunity rather than a success. At first glance, the result doesn’t seem all that bad. Earning a point against a stronger opponent is hardly a failure. But context matters, and in this case, one word sums it up again: disappointing.
Yes, Lithuania fought back admirably from a 0:2 deficit and managed to equalize against a side superior on paper. Yet conceding twice in the opening 17 minutes shattered early hopes of a landmark victory, one that had seemed within reach before kickoff. Had those early goals been avoided, who knows? Perhaps Lithuania would still have found the net twice and, in doing so, transformed not only the match but also the mood and outlook of their entire qualifying campaign.
But it is what it is. Edgaras Jankauskas’ men now return to action, set to face Finland on October 9 and Poland on October 12. Their most recent outing, a narrow 2:3 defeat to the Netherlands, the world’s seventh-ranked team, according to FIFA, offered a rare glimpse of what this Lithuanian side can be. For a brief moment, they stood on the brink of what could have been one of the most historic results in the nation’s footballing history.
Injury woes and missing leaders
Perhaps the most striking feature of Lithuania’s upcoming campaign has been the number of absences in the squad. Injuries have taken a heavy toll, sidelining several key players who have been struggling for some time. Centre-back Kipras Kažukolovas (Astana, Kazakhstan), striker Armandas Kučys (NK Celje, Slovenia), and winger Matas Vareika (Pyunik, Armenia) are all missing from the current roster, either still recovering or not fully fit to play.
To make matters worse, head coach Edgaras Jankauskas has had to contend with additional last-minute setbacks. Shortly after the squad announcement, Marius Adamonis (Sudtirol, Italy), Edgaras Utkus (Cercle Brugge, Belgium), and Edgaras Dubickas (Ternana Calcio, Italy) also picked up knocks that ruled them out of contention.
Whether these injuries will affect Lithuania’s performance against Finland and Poland remains to be seen. The hope, of course, is that they won’t, but only time will tell. One thing is certain: every player who steps onto the pitch will need to give everything to secure even a glimpse of a positive result.
Fans on the move
The upcoming test against Finland will be a significant one. Yet amid the uncertainty, there’s already a positive takeaway: the fans. Thanks to an organized train trip, a three-digit number of Lithuanian supporters is expected to make the journey north to cheer for their team. It’s a remarkable show of dedication and a first-of-its-kind initiative, symbolizing how far fan culture around the national team can come.
Facing Finland and Poland: the road ahead
On the field, however, the challenge will be steep. Finland remain the stronger side on paper, and mounting another comeback from 0:2, as Lithuania did in Kaunas, will be far from easy. A disciplined defensive performance and ruthless efficiency in front of goal will be essential if Jankauskas’ men are to have any chance of success.
As for the clash with Poland, the atmosphere promises to be electric. The match will be played in Lithuania, but the visitors will hardly feel outnumbered: more than 3,500 Poles are officially expected to be in the stadium. Among them will be one of the world’s top strikers, Robert Lewandowski, leading a side determined to secure a crucial victory in their bid for first place in the group.
The last time these two sides met, Lithuania fell narrowly, 0:1, after conceding an unfortunate late goal. It was a game that could easily have gone the other way: Giedrius Matulevičius came agonizingly close to giving Lithuania the lead, missing a one-on-one chance while the score was still level. In the end, the favorites escaped with a hard-fought win and will surely be looking for a more comfortable result this time in Kaunas.
Realistically, expecting three, or even six, points from the upcoming fixtures would be overly optimistic. Yet, if the spirited display against the Netherlands proved anything, it’s that this Lithuanian team is capable of surprising even the strongest opponents.
Perhaps facing sides that are superior on paper frees the players from pressure and allows them to perform with more confidence. In any case, the next two matches will provide answers about the team’s progress, resilience, and what the future of Lithuanian football might truly hold.
